Five-time Absa Cape Epic winner Christoph Sauser likes to point out that you can’t predict how tough a mountain bike route will be without knowing what the conditions are like.
Fundamental to those conditions is the weather: a headwind is ghastly, but a tailwind is terrific. Rain can settle down trails nicely, but too much can churn up mud and damage equipment. Heat can take its toll, as can extreme cold.
In years gone by Absa Cape Epic competitors have faced weather that has ranged from bitterly cold and wet to tropically hot – and everything between those extremes. Many of the 2016 riders will this week have been poring over weather reports while taking a break from packing, last-minute preparation and managing the butterflies in their stomachs.
If the long-range weather reports are anything to go by, they will be expecting a mixed bag: some showers (maybe), some plus 30ºC days, and some wind.
Conditions for Sunday’s Prologue at Meerendal Wine Estate in Durbanville should be cool but quite windy. Accuweather is, however, predicting “morning showers” and a maximum temperature of 21ºC. The much vaunted yr.no site says there might be showers on Saturday evening but the day in question will be cloudy with a “fresh breeze”. It also predicts a maximum of 21ºC.
Photo: Ewald Sadie/Cape Epic/SPORTZPICS
On Sunday evening the race will decamp to Tulbagh and on Monday’s Stage 1 the heat will be turned up. Both yr.no and Accuweather are predicting maximums of 33ºC with little wind. Accuweather says the day will be “sunny, pleasant and warmer” but most riders would prefer a cooler day.
Stage 2 travels around Tulbagh and it will again be hot: yr.no is predicting 32ºC and Accuweather 33ºC, and both agree that there will be little wind.
On Stage 3 riders will travel from Tulbagh to Wellington, which is also shaping up to be warm. Well, yr.no says the mercury will touch 32ºC but Accuweather is predicting a more modest 28ºC. There might be a “moderate breeze” early on but it seems destined to ease off as the day goes on.
Stage 4 stays in Wellington and yr.no says it will still be hot – 30ºC with a light breeze. However, Accuweather is predicting that it will be “warm with some sun” and a maximum of 26ºC.
Stage 5 – a transition from Wellington to Stellenbosch – is where the predictions diverge: Accuweather says there will be showers in Wellington and “a little rain” in Stellenbosch, while yr.no is convinced it will be clear. Both are as one though on the fact that the maximum will be 25ºC and there will be a bit more wind about: a “light breeze”, says yr.no.
yr.no is, however, predicting that the rain will hit Stellenbosch on Saturday for Stage 6’s route around the area: it is expecting a significant 4,4mm to fall between 8am and 2pm and a maximum temperature of just 17ºC. Accuweather, by sharp contrast, is anticipating a “partly sunny” day with a maximum of 26ºC. They agree, however that there will be a bit of a breeze around.
And then it is the Grand Finale, the final stage that takers riders from Stellenbosch back to Meerendal. yr.no is expecting a droplet or two early on in Durbanville and a maximum of 21ºC, but Accuweather says it’ll get to 25ºC, there won’t be any rain and there will be “clouds and sun”. They agree that there will be little wind.
All pretty promising given that there are no extreme extremes anticipated, but bear in mind that long-range weather forecasting is not an exact science …
Source: Cape Epic Media
